China's wind power sector is set to achieve a landmark year in 2025, driven by surging installations, stabilized prices, and significant advancements in offshore wind technology.
STCN
China's wind power sector is set to achieve a landmark year in 2025, driven by surging installations, stabilized prices, and significant advancements in offshore wind technology. Industry analysts predict this turning point will catalyze profitability recovery across the entire supply chain, while long-term prospects in deep-sea offshore wind development could reshape the future of renewable energy in the country.
The offshore wind sector witnessed a flurry of activity in the second half of 2024, with approvals and bidding processes gaining significant momentum. Industry experts anticipate that many of these projects will enter substantive construction in 2025, marking a pivotal year for wind power installations.National energy authorities have set a target of 200 GW in combined wind and solar capacity additions for 2025. According to projections from Zheshang Securities, wind power alone will account for an annual average of 100 GW in new installations between 2024 and 2026, representing an 11% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Offshore wind installations are expected to lead this growth, with a remarkable 41% CAGR, outpacing the 6% growth forecast for onshore wind.
Wind turbine manufacturers have made significant strides in scaling up turbine sizes, leading to a substantial reduction in costs. In the offshore wind market, procurement costs for key equipment have dropped nearly 50% over the past three years, dramatically enhancing the economic feasibility of projects. This price stabilization is expected to drive profitability recovery across the industry chain.
Looking beyond 2025, deep-sea offshore wind projects are emerging as the next growth frontier. Recent government policies and technological innovations are converging to accelerate development in this area.The recently released Guidelines for High-Quality Development of Industries Supported by Natural Resources call for a "30 MW per project" standard for new offshore installations, signaling a commitment to large-scale, high-capacity projects.Key advancements include the successful installation of offshore turbines with individual capacities exceeding 20 MW and the launch of high-capacity flexible direct current (DC) transmission projects, both critical to enabling large-scale offshore wind integration.
The combination of strong policy support, cost reductions, and technological breakthroughs positions China's wind power industry for a transformative year in 2025. Analysts expect the industry to recover from recent price wars and move towards sustainable profitability while laying the groundwork for the next wave of growth in offshore wind, particularly in deep-sea developments.As the world increasingly focuses on clean energy transitions, China's wind power sector is set to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of global renewable energy.